2015 Toyota Estima — MOT failures & pass rate
4,463 MOT tests on the 2015 Toyota Estima are in this dataset, and 83.9% of them passed. MPVs of a similar age fail 17.4% of the time, so this is 1.3pp better than the group it competes with. Failures cluster in lighting & signalling, suspension and brakes.
What the MOT record shows
Lighting & signalling dominates the failure mix at 13.0% of all tests — 6.8 points clear of suspension, so it is the first thing to check.
At component level the recurring items are position lamp, headlamp aim and headlamp — position lamp alone was recorded 219 times.
A 150k+ example is materially riskier than a 0-30k one: 21.7% versus 2.7%.
Split by fuel, petrol examples fail 9.6pp more often than hybrid ones (18.6% vs 9.0%) — worth weighing if you have a choice.
Advisories point at the next bill rather than this one: suspension was flagged on 24.3% of tests without failing them.
The trend is improving — the fail rate fell from 19.7% in 2021 to 13.6% in 2025, as the worst-kept examples leave the fleet.
How it compares
Top failure categories
| # | Category | % of tests affected | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lighting & signalling | 13.0% | 578 |
| 2 | Suspension | 6.2% | 276 |
| 3 | Brakes | 4.5% | 201 |
| 4 | Tyres | 3.8% | 170 |
| 5 | Visibility | 3.2% | 142 |
| 6 | Emissions & environmental | 2.8% | 126 |
Most common specific failures
The exact components most often recorded as failures — more specific than the categories above.
| # | Failure item | Times recorded |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Position lamp | 219 |
| 2 | Headlamp aim | 215 |
| 3 | Headlamp | 199 |
| 4 | Rear fog lamp | 174 |
| 5 | Registration plate lamp(s) | 136 |
| 6 | Linkage ball joint dust cover | 133 |
Top advisory categories
Advisories aren't failures, but they flag work likely needed soon — useful when budgeting.
| # | Category | % of tests with advisory | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suspension | 24.3% | 1,086 |
| 2 | Tyres | 17.6% | 787 |
| 3 | Brakes | 16.9% | 756 |
| 4 | Lighting & signalling | 11.2% | 500 |
| 5 | Emissions & environmental | 8.4% | 375 |
| 6 | Other defects | 7.3% | 327 |
Failure rate by mileage
Higher-mileage cars tend to fail more — often the most useful guide to real condition.
| Mileage band | Tests | Fail rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0-30k | 74 | 2.7% |
| 30-60k | 806 | 8.6% |
| 60-90k | 1,060 | 11.9% |
| 90-120k | 1,063 | 18.8% |
| 120-150k | 737 | 22.4% |
| 150k+ | 719 | 21.7% |
Failure rate by age
By fuel type
| Fuel | Tests | Fail rate |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol | 3,195 | 18.6% |
| Hybrid | 1,099 | 9.0% |
| Electric | 92 | 15.2% |
| Gas/LPG | 43 | 14.0% |
| Other | 32 | 12.5% |
Trend over time
| Dataset year | Tests | Fail rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 700 | 19.7% |
| 2022 | 855 | 17.1% |
| 2023 | 966 | 16.2% |
| 2024 | 897 | 15.3% |
| 2025 | 1,045 | 13.6% |
What to check before buying a 2015 Estima
On a 2015 Estima, lighting & signalling is what the MOT record says goes wrong most — it appeared in 13.0% of tests. Check these areas before you commit.
- Lighting & signalling (13.0% of tests): Often a cheap bulb, but persistent issues can mean wiring or corrosion in the units. Typical repair: £10–£150.
- Suspension (6.2% of tests): Worn drop links, bushes, springs or shocks — listen for knocks over bumps and check for uneven tyre wear. Typical repair: £150–£450 per corner.
- Brakes (4.5% of tests): Pads/discs are routine wear; binding, imbalance or corroded pipes are more serious — test for pulling under braking. Typical repair: £100–£350 per axle.
Repair costs are rough UK ballpark ranges to set expectations, not quotes — actual prices vary widely by car, parts and garage.
Frequently asked questions
How many 2015 Toyota Estimas pass their MOT?
83.9% of the 4,463 2015 Toyota Estima MOT tests in this dataset passed — a 16.1% fail rate.
What is the most common MOT failure on a 2015 Toyota Estima?
Lighting & signalling, recorded in 13.0% of tests, followed by suspension (6.2%).
Does the 2015 Estima get worse with mileage?
Its MOT fail rate rises from 2.7% in the 0-30k band to 21.7% in the 150k+ band.
Methodology & source. Based on 4,463 MOT tests. Dataset: DVSA MOT testing data (2021,2022,2023,2024,2025). Data last updated 2026-07-27. Figures reflect MOT-testable defects only — read the methodology for how these are calculated and what they don't measure.